Leclerc and Ferrari can only lose the F1 world title in 2022

Leader in the F1

Of course it is still early in the season and everyone will say that nothing has been played yet, but that is not true. If you look at the standings in the championship now, that race has actually already been run. A lead of 34 points from the number one to the number two is already huge, but especially if you realise that the number two is not even a serious challenger.

If you look at the races there is only one team that really comes close to Ferrari and that is Red Bull Racing. In the first three races, those two teams are on an island of their own and the rest are more than a second behind. Of course, the development curve is steep with the new regulations, but you don't make up a second in a couple of months.

The second drivers in the top teams

Within the top teams there is also already a clear division visible. Carlos Sainz is doing his best, but Leclerc is simply too fast for his teammate in early 2022. The Spaniard's loss has put him in a difficult position because a gap of 38 points could easily give him the stamp of 'second driver'.

Sergio Perez is currently the closest of the two Red Bull drivers to Leclerc, but that is not reflected in terms of pace. In Jeddah Perez did well, but in Bahrain and Australia he did not have the speed of the front two drivers. So the fact that he is 41 points behind is also not a real threat to Leclerc yet.

Bad luck for Verstappen

The real and only threat on the track comes only from Max Verstappen. The reigning world champion is the only one capable of putting pressure on Leclerc every qualifying session and every race, despite the fact that the RB18 is clearly inferior to the F1-75. With a win in Saudi Arabia, Verstappen showed what he could do, but was unlucky in the other races.

Due to two dropouts in three races, the gap of Verstappen, Leclerc's only and real competitor, is already 46 points. This gap is already impossible to bridge with equal cars, but with a better car for Leclerc in the early stages of the season, it seems almost impossible from Verstappen's point of view to win yet.

So only three races have been completed, but when you have clearly had the best car in those first three races, are 46 points ahead of your only competitor and can already make a clear division within the team, then there is no excuse left for Ferrari and Leclerc. If that title doesn't come this year, then they have ruined it themselves by either not developing the car properly or by making big mistakes in the races. Quite simply, Leclerc and Ferrari can only lose the title.

This column was originally written by Tim Kraaij for the Dutch edition of GPblog