Column | Nonsense that Leclerc is now suddenly back in the title race

A fast and reliable F1 car

"I would rather have a fast car that is not reliable than the other way around," It is a statement that Christian Horner loves to make and one that Mattia Binotto copied this season. There may be some truth in it, but to be a champion you need both. You need to be fast and you need to be reliable. One or the other does you no good.

The Mercedes era is an example of how you become world champion by being fast and reliable, but there are also plenty of examples from the past. Think of Fernando Alonso who, in 2005, really did not have a faster car than Kimi Raikkonen. Alonso's Renault, however, crashed much less often than the Finn's McLaren.

In 2021, we also saw this in the championship contenders. Valtteri Bottas crashed out three times and a failed pit stop system once. Lewis Hamilton only crashed out. At Red Bull Racing we saw the same with only crashes for Sergio Perez and Max Verstappen.

The comparison between those two years is not entirely fair because the cars were fully developed, but the principle remains the same. You can have a bad day and finish lower, but dropping out will cost you many more points. So it's not surprising that Max Verstappen wrote himself off for the title after two dropouts in the first three races of 2022.

The problems at Ferrari

While Verstappen crashed out due to minor problems with his car, the problems at Ferrari are much bigger. The Ferrari engine is the problem. The pride of Maranello is not something to be proud of in 2022. In the spirit of Enzo Ferrari the engine is very fast, but not at all reliable. That is what is breaking the team down now and will only break it down further.

It's nice that Ferrari is winning a race again and seems to be a lot faster than Red Bull, but that doesn't mean the championship is suddenly wide open again. Ferrari is behind, while it should be ahead. The team has too many reliability problems to turn a deficit into a lead in the next eleven races.

Leclerc already installed a fourth ICE, TC, MGU-H and MGU-K and for that he got a grid penalty in Canada. Race number nine. Carlos Sainz has already installed three of the same parts and will face a penalty in France. The chances of the engine surviving are nil.

That Sainz's engine went up in smoke is also a bad sign for Leclerc. The problems are still not solved and sensors are apparently not picking up on when they are coming. So it could just be over at the front of the race, as happened in Baku and Barcelona of course.

These Ferrari problems are also reflected in the entire list. While drivers with a Red Bull (AlphaTauri used multiple parts) or Mercedes engine only installed the same parts twice, we see that drivers from Haas and Alfa Romeo also needed a new Ferrari engine three times.

Leclerc must be ahead

It is therefore safe to assume that Leclerc will have to retire again and take at least two more grid penalties. The pace of Ferrari is not such (Verstappen was fastest in qualifying and the sprint race) that Leclerc will win the race from last place. In those three races Leclerc could lose about fifty points (25 points plus two third places equals 10 points). If you take that into account, Leclerc will have to make up 88 points on Verstappen in the other eight races.

So in my opinion Leclerc is not in the title race at all. The Italian (and British) media want Ferrari to compete for the world title, but Red Bull is in a much better position. Not only are there no major problems with the engine, but also its speed is improving. You have to remember that Verstappen has been on pole twice in three races. At Silverstone he clearly had the best car and at the Red Bull Ring it only went wrong on Sunday. If Red Bull can find the reason, it will probably be back in contention for victory in France.

Ferrari and Leclerc have fallen behind in points due to engine problems, but also a future setback that everyone knows is coming. Leclerc will have to drop out again and Leclerc will have to take another grid penalty. Victory in Austria was good for the title fight, but Leclerc will only be truly competitive again if he has a lead on Verstappen. If not, Verstappen will coolly head for his second world title. A second place was already a victory for him.

This article originated on the Dutch edition of GPBlog and was written by Tim Kraaij.