2018 'Vettel scenario' now threatens Leclerc too

Leclerc's 38 points deficit prior to the French GP was still easily bridgeable. Ferrari's F1-75 is generally a faster car than the Red Bull. All Ferrari had to do was overcome reliability problems and make the right strategic decisions. What nobody really took into account was that Leclerc could make mistakes himself.

Verstappen in a comfortable position

The young Monegasque was beaten by team-mate Carlos Sainz in last year's world championship, but is by far the better of the two this year. However, he also appears human, as he made an unnecessary mistake at Paul Ricard. The cost of that? Verstappen has gained 25 points in the World Championship and is now 63 points ahead.

Leclerc will have to win two Grands Prix and Verstappen will have to retire twice. However, that does not seem likely as the Red Bull has remained extremely reliable after the 24-year-old Limburger retired for a second time in Australia with mechanical problems. Conclusion? The momentum is with Verstappen and Red Bull and the gap seems almost irreversible.

Momentum seemed to have returned to the Maranello-based team after Ferrari's victories in Britain and Austria, but Red Bull were able to turn it around just as easily, thanks (in part) to Leclerc's mistake. The current world number two handed the keys to the World Championship to Verstappen on Sunday. Just as Vettel did to Hamilton in the 2018 German GP.

Vettel hands over title

The then Ferrari driver had dominated and won the race at Silverstone a fortnight ago. At Hockenheim, Vettel again seemed to be heading to victory unchallenged and a comfortable margin in the World Championship seemed in the making, but nothing could be further from the truth. From the front, Vettel crashed without any pressure from behind.

It is of course impossible to draw comparisons between Leclerc and Vettel, but the common thread is clear. In both cases Ferrari has a very fast car, perhaps the best on the grid. The team is capable of winning, of contending for the world title, but in the end the championship still goes quite easily to the competitor. The 2018 scenario looks set to repeat itself for four years, if nothing changes.

Of the six Grands Prix immediately following the weekend in Germany in 2018, no fewer than five went to Lewis Hamilton, with the British driver taking definitive control of the World Championship. All this while Vettel seemed to have the momentum. After the German Grand Prix, things went completely wrong for Vettel. He won only once that year, right after the summer break in Belgium.

Leclerc must recover quickly

It is to be hoped that Leclerc will be first across the line more than once this season, otherwise it will be very monotonous. The 24-year-old will need to recover quickly as the next Grand Prix is already scheduled for this weekend in Budapest. If Leclerc does not finish ahead of Verstappen in Hungary, it really is over and done with. After the summer break there are only nine GPs left on the schedule.