Analysis | Ferrari quick but Verstappen is faster where it matters in Italy

Qualifying pace 

On the ultimate lap time, both Ferrari drivers toppled the Verstappen. That being said, the Dutchman recorded the fastest times in both sectors two and three. Surprisingly, sector three contains the longest medium-slow speed corner on the circuit which is where Ferrari have been stronger most of the year. 

With Carlos Sainz being given a hefty penalty and starting towards the back of the grid, it's perhaps likely Ferrari will try to get both drivers into Q3 and sacrifice Sainz in that final qualifying session. The tow is always powerful in Monza due to the lack of corners and this could be something Ferrari look to exploit in order to beat Red Bull on Saturday. Of course, it's something Red Bull could look into as well, though as it stands Verstappen only has a five-place penalty and wouldn't want to sacrifice too much for Perez. 

George Russell complained of some problems going into turn one under braking. However, it seems that both Russell and Lewis Hamilton were on the pace in the opening sector. In the middle and final sectors, the Mercedes drivers were around three-tenths behind which would suggest they are still lacking pure pace. 

Long run analysis 

With the long run, Verstappen seemingly has the advantage. Both Leclerc and Verstappen have averaged the same lap time but there's one crucial difference. Leclerc was on the soft tyre, one step softer and therefore quicker than Verstappen. The delta is yet to be confirmed by Pirelli this weekend, but it's usually around three-tenths. This is backed up by Russell and Perez on the same pace but using different tyres. 

It's one of the best places for overtaking on the F1 calendar given the long straights and lack of corners, but it's not as easy as Belgium. It seems like there will be plenty of drivers coming through the field, including Hamilton and Sainz. The midfield is tightly packed and therefore it could be a challenge for these drivers to escape the DRS trains. 

Monza speed highlights Red Bull improvements

Over the few years, there’s been a lot of talk about how Honda have significantly closed the gap between themselves and the Mercedes power unit. And that is very true in 2022. In fact, since the new rules and regulations were introduced Red Bull have been quickest in a straight line at most circuits. This was most notable at the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix in Jeddah. 

The following table is something to look out for tomorrow. But should Verstappen go for the fastest lap [he has a penalty, so won't start from pole] we will really get an idea of the sudden swing in performance Red Bull have experienced compared to the rest of the field. Most often, history has shown that Red Bull were around one full second off the pace on a single lap. Sometimes slightly more, and sometimes slightly less. It's expected that a big change will happen tomorrow, highlighting just how the picture has changed in Formula 1. 

*** In Friday qualifying, Valtteri Bottas put it on pole position, with Hamilton a close second. Verstappen was just over three-tenths behind. The Dutchman was almost beaten by both Lando Norris and Daniel Ricciardo who are powered by Mercedes engines.