Qualifying duels in 2021: Verstappen is nearly five tenths faster than Perez

The qualifying duel in F1

At GPblog we keep track of the qualifying head to heads, but also by what time difference. In case of the time difference, we look at the last session in which both drivers have been active. The circumstances can differ per session because the track is getting faster and faster. Therefore we choose to look at the difference in the last session the drivers have driven.

If you don't drive a qualifying due to a crash in the free practice (like Mick Schumacher in Monaco) or due to a crash in qualifying itself, then there is no time difference to measure. The victory is given to the driver who qualified unless it is because of a technical problem in which case it doesn't count as a victory.

 

 

 

 

 

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Experienced drivers disappoint

Enough about the way we measure, let's go to the differences. The differences are quite big with some teams, and especially in favor of a driver we didn't expect. For example, Lando Norris and Esteban Ocon are ahead in their battle with experienced teammates. 

Of course, Norris and Ocon have been with the team longer, but most would not have expected Norris to be 0.229s faster than Ricciardo. The Australian is still ahead 3-2, but if he loses it will be by a huge margin. Fernando Alonso does not have that lead. He is 1-4 behind and lost an average of 0.354s to Ocon in qualifying. Not exactly what we are used to from the two-time World Champion.

However, there are teams where the qualifying difference is even greater. Mick Schumacher is the king in this respect. He is 4-1 ahead and was on average 0.623s faster than Nikita Mazepin. Behind him is Pierre Gasly. He hasn't lost a qualifying session to his young teammate yet and is 0.579s faster than Tsunoda on average per qualifying session.

Painful for Red Bull Racing

George Russell also manages to bring the gap back to over five-tenths. The Briton hadn't lost a duel to Nicholas Latifi at the end of 2020 and doesn't look set to do so for the foreseeable future. Antonio Giovinazzi continues last season's streak with a 4-1 lead over Kimi Raikkonen and a clear difference too: 0.356s.

At Red Bull Racing you see the pain point in the title fight. Max Verstappen said it before, but for now, he's still on his own. Sergio Perez won the duel in Imola with a minimal difference, but on average he is 0.471s behind. That's too many places he needs to make up on Sunday, which means he can't really assist Verstappen.

That difference becomes painfully clear when you look at Mercedes, where the teammates are close. Valtteri Bottas has come in for a lot of criticism, but with a 3-2 lead over Lewis Hamilton and a difference of 0.064s, the Finn is very close to the seven-time world champion. That role as second driver has already earned Mercedes many points.

Big step for Ferrari

In that respect, it is also clear that Ferrari has made a big step forward this year with the acquisition of Carlos Sainz. Whereas the difference between Vettel and Leclerc over 2020 was almost five-tenths, Sainz has managed to stay within two-tenths of the man from Monaco in the first five races. If he gets any closer it could be very exciting over there.

At Aston Martin, they will also be happy with the difference between the teammates. Lance Stroll leads 3-2 with an average lead of 0.063s. Sebastian Vettel was brought in as the frontrunner but isn't quite getting that yet. Perez was over three tenths a qualifying session faster than Stroll last year, so it's debatable whether Stroll has improved that much, or whether Vettel is still not at a good level. Vettel does seem to be improving though. Of the last three qualifying sessions, he won two.