Analysis | Which upcoming circuits will favour either Mercedes or Red Bull?

With eleven races to go, everything is still up for grabs, and Red Bull have ample opportunities to overturn their points deficit. In this column, we will analyze the strengths of both the Mercedes W12 and the Red Bull RB16B in relation to the upcoming tracks, to see who will prevail in one of the greatest title battles of the past decade.

Mercedes Make Progress

Mercedes introduced a barrage of aerodynamic updates heading into the British Grand Prix, with the hopes of closing the performance gap to Red Bull. Mercedes seemed to have a slight upper hand in qualifying at Silverstone, as Hamilton beat Verstappen to top Q3 by seven-hundredths. Race pace is more difficult to assess - Verstappen seemed to have the measure on Hamilton during the sprint race. And obviously, we weren’t able to draw any substantial conclusions during Sunday’s Grand Prix as Verstappen made an early exit from the race. 

However, Mercedes were genuinely faster in Hungary, as Hamilton put in a scorching Q3 lap to beat his title rival by more than four-tenths of a second. Again, it was near impossible to judge whether the Mercedes was faster in race trim, as Sergio Perez was taken out into turn one, and Verstappen drove the race with a significantly damaged car. 

These upgrades bode well for Mercedes in the upcoming races. Throughout the season, we have seen a general trend develop where the Red Bull is faster in qualifying, but Mercedes is more competitive in the race. Mercedes’s slight tire wear advantage may benefit them at tracks with high tire wear, such as the Circuit of the Americas (although Red Bull have made strides in this area).

Other tracks, such as Monza, Sochi, and Yas Marina have been Mercedes strongholds in the past. If Silverstone is anything to go by, it is difficult to see a reality in which Mercedes are not competitive at these races.

Red Bull: Still the Favorites?

Red Bull’s relative lack of pace at the Hungarian Grand Prix was puzzling. After all, many pundits expected the RB16B to dominate the Mercedes through the tight bends of the Hungaroring. On paper, the Red Bull has more downforce than the Mercedes, and Honda have closed the performance gap to the Mercedes power unit.

However, Red Bull’s struggles in Hungary had more to do with set-up woes than a fundamental flaw in the car’s design philosophy. Throughout free practice, the drivers complained about chronic understeer. As a remedy, the Red Bull mechanics installed a smaller rear wing that produces less downforce. This solution reduced the understeer and increased performance on the straights, but came at the expense of downforce on a track that relies primarily on downforce. As a result of these set-up issues and the boiling track temperatures, Red Bull were not competitive in qualifying. 

Red Bull still have a competitive package, however. The RB16B has excelled across a wide variety of tracks, from tight street circuits such as Monaco to power-sensitive tracks such as Paul Ricard and the Red Bull Ring. As of now, Red Bull draw most of their advantage over Mercedes from medium-speed and high-speed corners, with Mercedes clawing some time back through the low-speed corners. This advantage will bode well for Red Bull at high-speed tracks such as Spa and Jeddah. 

In past years, we have also seen that Red Bull perform better at higher altitude tracks, as Mercedes struggle with cooling issues. This should theoretically give them the edge on circuits such as Mexico City and Interlagos. Coupled with an inherent advantage in tire warm-up (which provides more performance at the start and in low-grip conditions), Red Bull are arguably still the favorites for the title.

Of course, much of the championship battle comes down to how much more the teams are going to develop their cars. Mercedes and Red Bull are in a difficult position where they must balance the development of this year’s car with that of 2022’s; this dilemma is further exacerbated by the cost cap. If one team devotes too many resources to winning this year’s championship, then they risk having an uncompetitive car for next year’s regulations. We have seen numerous examples of this in the past. For instance, McLaren went from fighting for the championship in 2008 to being stuck in the midfield in 2009 after a regulation change.

Mercedes Chief Technical Director James Allison stated in his post-race debrief that development on the W12 is practically complete, with only a few bits being introduced here and there in the upcoming races; the majority of the team has shifted its focus to the 2022 regulations. Red Bull, having not won a championship in almost eight years, are far more likely to throw the proverbial kitchen sink at this year’s championship. Whatever happens, we are in for a thrilling fight between the two best teams and two of the best drivers in this sport. Game on.

McLaren vs. Ferrari: The Battle for Bronze

Following Vettel’s post-race disqualification from the Hungarian Grand Prix, Ferrari moved level with McLaren in the constructor’s championship, with 163 points apiece. In many ways, the fight for P3 is as scintillating as that for the championship. 

As is the case with Mercedes and Red Bull, the McLaren MCL35M and Ferrari SF21 have their own unique strengths and weaknesses. McLaren switched to the Mercedes power unit for 2021, and it seems to be paying dividends. The McLaren is absolutely rapid on the straights, and thus will likely have the ascendancy on power-sensitive circuits such as Spa, Monza, and the Circuit of the Americas. 

On the other hand, the Ferrari seems to be stronger through low-speed and medium-speed corners. We have seen that Ferrari have been extremely competitive at street circuits such as Monaco and Baku, even taking the fight to the top two teams in these events. As such, the Scuderia will likely be strong at upcoming tracks with similar characteristics, such as Zandvoort and Jeddah. Moreover, Ferrari have an engine upgrade planned for the upcoming races, so it remains to be seen if they can reduce the gap to the class-leading Mercedes power unit. 

Crucially, the Ferrari SF21 has one key weakness: tire wear. Following a pointless outing at Paul Ricard, Ferrari driver Carlos Sainz admitted to F1.com, “Our performance was really strictly linked to the tyres, the way we made them work. We have a very narrow window of working range on our front tyres. We tend to struggle a lot more with graining and with front wear than our competitors and probably compared to the whole field.” Ferrari’s tire wear struggles will limit them at tracks which are harsh on tires, such as the Circuit of the Americas and Mexico City. 

Regardless, we are set for an enthralling battle between two of F1’s most historic teams: McLaren and Ferrari. May the best team win.