Verstappen, Norris or Leclerc the favourites for Australian Grand Prix?

Formula 1 in 2025

Ahead of the 2025 Formula 1 season, three days of testing were already run in Bahrain. From 26 to 28 February, the Bahrain International Circuit was used to test the new F1 cars for 2025.

After testing, everyone always wants to figure out the where the teams stack up in the order. Many agree that McLaren is ahead of the competition, but as it's often the case Ferrari often perform well. Red Bull Racing and Mercedes also hope to be close, although Verstappen himself stated that Red Bull still has work to do.

Behind the top four, a lot is expected from Williams in particular. Carlos Sainz was surprisingly fast during the test days, but he in turn pointed to Alpine and Haas. One thing was therefore agreed on after three days of testing: everyone is very close together.

The 2024 Australian Grand Prix

In 2024, the Australian Grand Prix was the third race on the Formula 1 calendar. That year, it looked like Max Verstappen would easily clinch his fourth world title on the trot, but things went awry in Melbourne. Having started on pole position, after just four laps the race came to an end for the Dutchman due to a rear brake failure.

With Verstappen out of the race, Carlos Sainz drove to victory in Albert Park. The Spaniard had had his appendix removed just two weeks before, but surprised friend and foe by seizing the chance for a win straight away. Charles Leclerc and Lando Norris had no answers to Sainz' pace that weekend.

Behind them, there was also a lot of focus on Mercedes. Lewis Hamilton failed to get through Q2 on Saturday, before DNF'ing on Sunday with engine related problems. Things did not go much better for George Russell. The Briton appeared to be on his way to a modest P6, but crashed on the last lap of the race due to a 'brake test' by Fernando Alonso. The Spaniard was penalised, but still bagged four points from the Melbourne race.

Albert Park

The Albert Park Circuit is an iconic event on the F1 calendar. First used as an official F1 event in 1996, it has hardly been off the calendar since. In 2020, the race in Australia was skipped due to COVID, as it was the following year, in 2021.

The circuit located in the middle of Melbourne's Albert Park is mainly characterised by chicanes, the unique kink of turns 11 and 12 and the slow final section of the track. Turn 11 is particularly important in racing, especially since the modifications to the circuit were made at the time of the corona pandemic.

At Albert Park, the most frequent winner is Michael Schumacher. The German won no less than four times in Melbourne, all while racing for Ferrari. Of the drivers still active, Lewis Hamilton has the most wins in the land down under. Indeed, Hamilton won in 2015 and 2018. Ferrari's been the most effective of all the teams with 10 wins to its name. McLaren is second at a notable distance with 'only' six wins.

However, Albert Park is not an appropriate track to get a feel for how things may unfold in terms of the championship. Of the last 10 editions held, it was won only three times by the eventual world champion. Only Lewis Hamilton (2015), Nico Rosberg (2016) and Max Verstappen (2023) won the Australian GP in the same year that they clinched the world title.

Weather forecast for the Australian Grand Prix

The weather looks set to play an important role in Australia for the Australian Grand Prix. On Friday, it will be 26 degrees and partly cloudy. During qualifying, however, the temperature rises to as high as 34 degrees. A big transition therefore for the teams after the first practice sessions on Friday and Saturday.

However, the contrast is even greater towards the Grand Prix on Sunday. Indeed, according to Weather.com, temperatures will drop to 24 degrees again and then there is an 89% chance of rain.

What time does the F1 Australian Grand Prix 2025 start?

For UK fans, the Australian Grand Prix means an early wake-up call. The first and third free practice sessions start as early as 01:30 am UK time. Qualifying will start at 05:00 on Saturday 15 March, after which the Australian Grand Prix will start at 04:00 on Sunday 16 March.

Prediction for the F1 Australian Grand Prix

After the winter test in Bahrain, everyone pointed to McLaren as the big favourite for the season opener in Australia. Max Verstappen even stated already that he does not expect to compete for victory, just as Toto Wolff on behalf of Mercedes already seemed to throw in the towel. So all eyes are on McLaren.

On a 'normal' race weekend, you would then expect a battle between home hero Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris. For both the first chance of the season to enforce first driver status within their own team.

Still, due to the rain on Sunday, a surprise winner cannot be ruled out. Then Max Verstappen can emerge as the best driver, but Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton might also be able to squeeze a better result of the Ferrari.

Let us know in the comments who you think will win this weekend and who will take to the podium.

This article was written in collaboration with Tim Kraaij.

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